Celtic welcome RB Leipzig to Parkhead in the Champions League this evening as they look to win for the first time since matchday one against Slovan.
The Hoops thumped the Slovakian side 5-1 in Glasgow on their opening night in the League Phase but their two matches since that have not been quite as comfortable.
Brendan Rodgers’ side followed up their win over Slovan with a devastating 7-1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in Germany, a game in which they were 5-1 down by half-time.
They then battled hard to secure a 0-0 draw away at Atalanta in their most recent outing in the Champions League, which means that they have four points in their three matches so far.
The Scottish giants had to dig in deep to land a draw in Bergamo, as the home side dominated the match – with 66% possession – and racked up 2.38 xG worth of chances without scoring.
Leipzig are currently second in the Bundesliga, with six wins and five goals conceded in nine games, and Celtic could face a similar test at Parkhead this evening, which means that they will have to contain the German side’s biggest threats.
RB Leipzig's biggest threats
They typically line up in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-2-2 system and this means that they often have two centre-forwards to occupy the defence and cause problems in the final third.
Those two strikers have, for the majority of this season, been Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko, who both offer different kinds of attributes at the top end of the pitch.
Openda is a fleet-footed, mobile, marksman who likes to make runs off the last line and has showcased his goalscoring quality this term, with five goals in eight Bundesliga starts, although he is yet to score in Europe.
Leipzig’s biggest threat in the Champions League so far, though, has been Sesko, who has scored three goals in three games in the competition – with two strikes against Juventus and one against Dortmund.
Appearances
9
3
xG
2.40
2.42
Goals
3
3
Aerial duels won per game
2.3
2.3
Aerial duel success rate
64%
70%
As you can see in the table above, the Slovenia international has scored six goals from just 4.82 xG across the Bundesliga and the Champions League this term.
The 6 foot 5 titan has also won the majority of his aerial battles, winning 2.3 per game on average, and scored two headers across both competitions, which illustrates how much of a challenge it will be to keep him quiet tonight.
Sesko is a centre-forward who offers quality in front of goal, as shown by his xG overperformance, as well as a physical presence for the centre-backs to deal with, which is why Rodgers must brutally ditch Auston Trusty from his starting XI.
Why Auston Trusty should be dropped
The USA international, who was signed from Sheffield United on a permanent deal in the summer transfer window, was selected to start alongside Cameron Carter-Vickers in the 6-0 win over Aberdeen in the League Cup at Hampden Park on Saturday.
His performance was rewarded with a player rating of 8/10 from The Scotsman, who wrote that the centre-back was rarely troubled by the Dons and kept things neat and tidy in possession.
Despite a strong showing, and a clean sheet, against Aberdeen, Rodgers must take the former Arsenal man out of the starting line-up as Sesko could take advantage of his struggles with aerial duels.
In the Premier League last term, Trusty barely won the majority of his battles in the air, winning 55% overall, as the Blades were relegated and conceded a staggering 104 times in 38 outings.
Appearances
3
Sofascore rating
6.60
Goals conceded
7
Aerial duels won per game
0.7
Aerial duel success rate
25%
As you can see in the table above, the central defender has struggled badly in the air in the Champions League this season, losing a whopping 75% of his contests.
These statistics suggest that Sesko, given his aerial dominance, could take advantage of the summer signing in those situations to cause Celtic huge problems, which is why Rodgers must take Trusty out of the team to avoid that issue. T
The Celtic titan who should replace Auston Trusty
The Hoops head coach must unleash Liam Scales in his place in order to give the Scottish giants the best possible chance of silencing the former RB Salzburg sensation.
Chalkboard
Football FanCast's Chalkboard series presents a tactical discussion from around the global game.
Unlike Trusty, the Republic of Ireland international is a towering central defender who has the presence and physicality to consistently dominate opposition forwards in the air, in the Premiership and in the Champions League.
In the 0-0 draw with Atalanta last time out in Europe, the former Aberdeen loanee won five of his seven aerial contests and made nine clearances to help his side keep a clean sheet.
Meanwhile, Trusty got away with losing five of his six aerial duels in that game because Mario Pasalic failed to score from any of his six headed attempts, which generated an xG of 1.0.
Sesko’s form for Leipzig this season, particularly aerially, suggests that he would not be as forgiving as the Atalanta midfielder was in front of goal, which is why the Hoops cannot afford to have a centre-back who is a liability in those situations tonight.
Appearances
10
3
Sofascore rating
7.61
7.07
Headed goals
1
1
Aerial duels won per game
5.7
4.7
Aerial duel success rate
76%
74%
As you can see in the table above, Scales has dominated players in the Premiership and in the Champions League in aerial contests this season.
The left-footed brute, who was lauded as “fantastic” for the team by Rodgers, has proven that he has the physical and defensive qualities that will be needed to keep a player of Sesko’s quality quiet this evening.
That is why the manager must bring him back into the starting XI to play on the left side of the defence, with Cameron Carter-Vickers on the right.
Worth more than Kuhn: Celtic lost a real star whose value's soared 1,300%
The former Celtic forward has thrived since moving down south to the Premier League.
1 ByDan EmeryNov 3, 2024